Digital ad spending is surging – retail media leads the charge in 2025

Nowadays global digital advertising is on track to cross $750 billion, and nowhere is the growth more pronounced than in retail media, which is expected to claim more than one-fifth of all digital ad spend. As brands shift to performance-driven channels, retail media is reshaping the ad ecosystem worldwide. Digital advertising is continuing its steady ascent. Forecasts suggest that in 2025, digital ad spending will exceed $750 billion, accounting for over 75% of total media ad spending. The shift toward digital is no longer incremental; it’s now foundational to marketing strategies across industries. At the center of this growth is retail media, where advertisers are increasingly allocating budgets inside retailer-owned channels. According to eMarketer, global retail media ad spending is projected at $169 billion in 2025, up 15.6 % year-over-year. More conservatively, some forecasts pin 2025 retail media spend closer to $165.9 billion, driven by continued double-digit growth. Retail media’s growth is not just about raw numbers, its share of total digital ad budgets is expanding. eMarketer expects retail media will represent 21.9% of all digital ad spending in 2025.  Retail media is evolving rapidly. One notable trend is the rapid expansion of off-site retail media, which eMarketer forecasts will grow 42.1% in 2025, nearly three times faster than on-site spend. Connected TV (CTV) retail media is also gaining traction: eMarketer expects a 43.1% increase in retail CTV spending in 2025. In the U.S., retail media ad spend is expected to exceed $62 billion, adding over $10 billion from the prior year.  Retail media’s expansion is heavily driven by structural advantages: access to first-party shopper data, closed-loop attribution, and inherent proximity to purchase behavior. As a result, advertisers see retail media as one of the fastest-growing and more measurable channels available.  Yet, this rising tide is not without complexity. Growth rates for retail media are beginning to decelerate. eMarketer’s Retail Media Forecast Update H1 2025 warns of slowing year-over-year gains, even as retail media’s slice of the digital pie grows. Fragmentation is also a persistent challenge: each retailer often operates its own systems, making scaling and measurement across networks more difficult.  Another structural issue is geographical concentration. China and the U.S. are forecasted to account for around 80.9% of retail media ad spend in 2025. Outside these giants, markets in the U.K., Germany, Canada, and select Asian and Latin American regions are seeing faster relative growth, though from a smaller base. Major platforms also dominate the landscape: Amazon continues to lead in many markets, but other retail media networks (RMNs) are gaining an increasing share outside of the U.S.  Looking ahead, forecasts paint a bold trajectory. Retail media is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.2% between 2024 and 2028 (per eMarketer), and some estimates push global retail media spend to $179.5 billion in 2025, making up 23% of total digital ad spend. By 2029, some project retail media could exceed $368 billion, with non-retail entities entering the fray.  The rise of retail media presents a strategic pivot point. Brands must navigate channel fragmentation, develop cross-RMN measurement frameworks, and optimize for both on-site and off-site placements. For retailers, the incentive lies in monetizing their audiences and building value beyond pure commerce. As traditional display and search channels face saturation, retail media’s expansion shows how ad dollars continue to chase performance, data, and proximity to purchase. In 2025, the digital ad landscape is not just growing, it’s realigning. Retail media is no longer a niche investment; it is now a core battlefield in the war for attention and consumer spend.

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